PAKISTAN MORE OF THE SAME
ANOTHER GENERAL :NEW WINE IN AN OLD BOTTLE
“Tu kay nawaqif-e-aadab-e-ghulami hae abhi
Raqs zanjeer pehan kar bhi kiya jata hai”
Unaware of the protocols of the King’s Court
Sometimes one must dance with chains on
(Habib Ghalib in ‘ Dastoor’, “Dispatches from Pakistan”)
Global audience thinks it knows about Pakistan, but lacks an understanding of its obsession with Islamism, unalloyed sympathy for Jihadis, and its propensity for terror.
We in India need to accept certain basic facts about the Islamic State of Pakistan, Governments of Pakistan past and present, Pakistani national ethos and most of all the mindset of its ruling elite, and the Pakistani army that rules the country, and wields the real power.
The origin of the idea of Pakistan, its formation in 1947, its evolution from a ‘normal’ British Dominion on 14 Aug 1947 to it becoming a ‘security state’ and worse an ‘international migraine’ has taken place in the last six decades.
Today Pakistan is identified as the hub of international terrorism, and an economic disaster. Its descent has been continuous and accelerating in the recent times.
Lt General Asim Munir, COAS, Pakistan Army
There has been a disproportionate quantum of news coverage in the international media on Pakistan, after the announcement of the name of General Asim Munir as the COAS of Pakistani army. Normally assumption by a new head of armed forces of any country will draw hardly any attention in world media.
However Pakistani army is in a class by itself.
Pakistani Army is an institution, that has dominated the Pakistani landscape since its independence in 1947. It has had ten Chiefs so far,
General Asim Munir as the Chief of the Army Staff will be the most powerful person in Pakistan.
He will be the Eleventh Chief of the Army Staff in Pakistan. He was given an extension of service to enable him to take over as COAS on 29 November, the day Gen Qamar Bajwa retired from active service.
However, can the precipitous decline of Pakistan be stopped and reversed, or at least slowed down under a new army chief ?
Lt General Asim Munir has taken over as Chief of the Army staff in Pakistan on 29 November 2022. Will there be any changes in Pakistan’s approach to its own citizens and the world outside? Or will it be Just More of the Same?
Is the new army chief of Pakistan any different from the previous chiefs? Given his background, can Lt General Asim Munir, be any different?
Ø Will Pakistani army under General Munir stop supporting terrorist organizations like JeM, LeT etc that target India?
Ø Will Pakistan stop terrorist attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere whenever there is a visit of a dignitary to India?
Ø Will Pakistan stop giving shelter to Khalistani terrorists on its soil and supply them with lethal weapons and send them into Indio perform terrorist activities?
Ø Will Pakistan stop its periodical attacks on India, like in 1947/48, 1965,1971, 1999 ?
Ø will there be repeats of Indian Parliament attack, 26/11, Pulwama, Patahankot and Kargil?
Ø Will General Munir protect the remnants of Hindus left behind in Pakistan, prevent abduction, forced marriages and rapes of Hindu women?
Ø Will he change the educational curriculum in Pakistani schools and textbooks that openly preach hatred towards India and Hindus?
Ø Will Pakistani army acknowledge and apologize for the rape and massacre of millions of Hindu Bangladeshis?
Ø Will he put a stop to the rampant army sponsored narcotics trade, that pushes drugs into Punjab, Rajasthan , Jammu, and Gujarat deliberately, with an aim to destroy Indian youth?
Ø Can he ensure that the tactical nuclear weapons are not handed over by his ISI or army personnel to terrorist or like JeM, LeT, Teheri ke Labbaik etc ?
Ø Will General Munir be any different from Hindu baiters like Akbar Khan, Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Musharraf, or Bajwa who have tried to emulate Salahuddin, Gazni, Ghori, Timur and Aurangzeb of the past?
Ø Can you really trust General Munir who as director ISI presided over the dastardly Pulwama attack to do anything positive?
Even a cursory glance of some aspects of General Bajwa from whom he takes over, and the existing issues confronting Pakistani society of which he is a part and parcel, are depressing.
What was the track record of his mentor General Bajwa, whom he is most likely to emulate?
General Qamar Bajwa
(One India)
General Bajwa must be complemented for his clever political maneuvers. General Qamar Bajwa has served as COAS in Pakistan since 29 November 2016 for a period of 6 years. Gen Bajwa had arm twisted the then political establishment and convinced the Pakistani army to snatch an additional extension of 3 years as the COAS in 2019.
Some of his predecessors like Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, or Musharraf, Bajwa was not the flamboyant and openly whiskey guzzling type. He preferred a low-key style approach and presented himself as a pro democracy soldier which enabled him not only to supersede two seniors to become COAS in 2016, but also to get an extension of a full term of three years.
Pakistani army under Gen Bajwa manipulated elections in 2018, and ensured the appointment of Imran Khan as the Prime minister of Pakistan. Imran Khan is famous in Pakistan as its ‘selected’ Prime Minister. Gen Bajwa also replaced Gen Munir who was the DG ISI with Gen……… …. An Imran favorite.
He managed to convince the Corps Commanders that he was the best bet in ensuring the conquest of Afghanistan by Taliban with the full support of Pakistani army.
So, it was easy for Gen Bajwa who was to retire from service on 29 Oct 2019, to get an extension from the then Prime Minister Imran Khan[1].
Ø Throughout his tenure of six years, Gen Bajwa appeared to support the US army in Afghanistan, but working behind the scenes, supplied Taliban with tanks, Guns, and even sent Pakistani troops to aid Talib attack on Afghanistan in 2021.
Under the guise of anti communism, anti terrorism Pakistani army has been carrying out the most violent operations in Afghanistan. Will it stop doing so?
Ø In quest of ‘strategic Depth’ Pakistan has made repeated attempts to subjugate Afghanistan and has managed to install a violent regime with medieval mindset.
General Bajwa also managed to install a Pakistan friendly regime in Kabul in August 202, with Haqqani Group dominating the Taliban government, sidelining many Taliban stalwarts.
Installation of a Taliban regime in Afghanistan, while driving out a democratically elected national government was a fantasy turned true for Pakistani army. Gen Bajwa fulfilled the dreams of decades, an Afghanistan coveted as a fallback area by its Generals. It was the fructification of a policy that considered Afghanistan as ‘strategic depth’ incase of an attack by India from the East.
Gen Bajwa also sent Imran Khan on a begging mission for financial aid to different countries but was not successful in getting recognition for the Taliban regime, installed by Pakistan.
While planning Taliban offensive to replace US troops in Afghanistan, Gen Bajwa knew that tension on the Indian border would limit Pakistani support to Taliban. He managed to sell ‘ceasefire pact’ to India, to take effect from 25 Feb 2021[i]. It gave Bajwa enough time to disengage troops from the East and utilize them in supporting Talib offensive in Afghanistan commencing 01 May 2021.
Bajwa’s clever manipulations of all stake holders, Taliban, Pakistani people and its political establishment, Government of India, and US administration deserves to be noted.
‘Leaked’ information of vast properties and accumulation of assets during his tenure as COAS has left a bitter aftertaste in his last days as COAS.
[1] Prime Minister Imran Khan[1], (18 Aug 2018 to 10April 2022).
[i] India Pakistan Ceasefire Pact — Jan 2021 | Background And Implications. On 25th February 2021, both India and Pakistan announced that there Army on both sides will strictly abide by the ceasefire agreement along the line of control and other sectors, and also address “each other’s” core issues as well as concerns.
Afghanistan Disappoints Pakistan
Taliban regime, whose members were supported by Pakistani army during its lean years was expected to be grateful and subservient to Pakistan.
Unfortunately for Pakistan, Taliban regime headed by Akhundzada is not proving to be pliable.
Even the Haqqani group foisted on the Taliban by Pakistani army has not been able to influence Taliban regime to forgo the national interests of Afghanistan.
Not only is the Taliban regime not willing to accept Durand line as the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, even worse, it has absolved itself of any responsibility to control Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which has virtually declared an open war against Pakistan.
“The Pakistani Taliban, allied with the Afghan Taliban, has been waging an armed rebellion in Pakistan for more than a decade, calling for the stricter enforcement of Islamic laws, the release of their members from government custody and a reduced Pakistani military presence in tribal-dominated regions.”
TTP is on a rampage and there are reports of TTP attacking Pakistani army posts, setting off bomb blasts in Pakistan.[i] Pakistani army and its police have been unable to control TTP infiltration into Pakistan.[ii]
[i]Pakistan Saw 51% Rise in Terrorist Attacks in Year Since Taliban
Took Over Afghanistan: Report.The spike in terror incidents saw the deaths of almost 500 people in the days between August 15, 2021 and August 14, 2022, a report by the Pak Institute of Peace Studies said. (https://thewire.in/south-asia/pakistan-saw-51-rise-in-terrorist-attacks-in-year-since-taliban-took-over-afghanistan-report)
[ii] Islamabad, Pakistan — At least six policemen have been killed in an ambush as they patrolled in a vehicle in Pakistan’s northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in one of the deadliest attacks in months. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/16/ttp-kills-six-police-officers-during-ambush-in-northwest-pakistan
Pakistani Society Today in 2022
Pakistani Society Today in 2022
Since the early days of its independence in 1947, the country of Pakistan has evolved into a ‘security state’, with a “ national security — obsessed middle class and ruling elite, the right wing radical nationalism axis denotes the growth of religious radicalism and militancy as symbols of geopolitical modernity that are anti-imperialist in nature”[i].
Pakistan has a model that is intensely hierarchical, with the Pakistani army at the top, an elite of bureaucracy and political carpet baggers vying for power in a closed society. The entire society with rare exceptions has no problems living with religious extremism, and even justifying its most heinous acts.
Pakistan: Anti-Shia protests rock Karachi, sectarian violence feared
India Blooms News Service | @indiablooms | 13 Sep 2020, 08:48 pm
Images may be subject to copyright
Deception as a matter of state policy is accepted as a norm by its ruling elite in its international dealings.
Fooling Americans and Sucking millions of dollars from USA in the guise of anti-terrorism actions in NWFP or Afghanistan, even while arming, training, and encouraging Taliban to murder US troops are a matter of record.
Using Muslim Card has been receiving support for its aggressive moves against India Afghanistan, Palestine and Bangladesh over decades.
Lecister Square Pakistani Jihadis attack Hindus https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Forganiser.org%2F2022%2F10%2F04%2F95764%2Fworld%2Fbritain-in-the-grip-of-hinduphobic-violence%2F&psig=
Pakistani diaspora regularly violate local laws in their countries of residence and brazenly support anti India activities of Khalistanis and Jihadis.
UK: Out of jail Islamist extremist Anjem Choudary calls for Muslim patrols, instigates Muslims to attack Hindus, asks Hindus to embrace Islam.
[i] Ayesha Siddiqa in Pakistan’s Modernity between the Military and Militancy, JSTOR
White- washing and absolving the Pakistani army of its responsibility for destroying democracy, the disastrous decisions leading to the secession of East Bengal, or the numerous failed attempts to snatch Kashmir from India, has been ingrained into the country’s psyche. The latest tirade by Gen Bajwa in his farewell speech where he squarely blamed the politicians of the day for the breaking up of Pakistan in 1971.
Rattling out threats of use of its nuclear arsenal from time to time, clandestine sale of nuclear technology to Libya, Iran, Iraq etc. have not drawn any adverse penal reactions from the international order, thus encouraging nuclear proliferation.
Threats of financial sanctions under FATF[i] have not worked (revoked in October 2022). Pakistan still harbors terrorist groups and terrorist gang leaders from JeM, TTP, and a dozen more move around freely in Pakistan today.[ii]
Three generations of Pakistanis have been schooled in hatred towards India especially Hindus and Israel. [iii]
Pakistani military is schooled in hatred towards India and is thirsting for revenge post break up of Pakistan in 1971. Pakistani army Motto is Iman, taqwa, jihad fi sabilillah.[iv], , (holy war in the path of Allah).
The current motto of the army is blatantly prejudiced and is completely inappropriate as the motto of an army of a nation state.
Next Six months to a year will see General Munir being distracted by an aggressive TTP, a not so friendly Afghan government under Taliban, and unrest in Baluchistan.
(The Telegraph Online)
On the political Pakistani army is confronted with an aggressive Imran Khan who has dared to take on the army and go public with his rhetoric against the generals. And, Imran Khan appears to be getting traction among the Pakistani public, which in the past had never ever questioned the worst acts of Pakistani army, even the being the root cause of Pakistani isolation in the world today.
The economic condition of Pakistan needs no elaboration. It has approximately 8 billion US $ as foreign reserve and more than three times in foreign debt. Debt servicing, repayment of loans will be an issue he cannot avoid.
[i] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-removed-from-fatf-grey-list-on-terror-financing/articleshow/95021064.cms
[ii] https://www.satp.org/terrorist-groups/pakistan
[iii] https://www.dawn.com/news/672000/pakistan-schools-teach-hinduhatred
[iv] The motto of the Pakistan Army as changed by Ziaul Haq is now, “imaan, taqwa, jihad fi sabilillah” (faith, piety, holy war in the path of Allah). It is interesting to compare this incredibly intense motto with the original unassuming, almost placid, national motto “ittehad, yaqeen aur tanzeem” (unity, faith and discipline). The current motto of the army is blatantly prejudiced and is completely inappropriate as the motto of an army of a nation state.
OUTLOOK FOR INDIA
Problems of Afghanistan and economic instability may compel General Munir to work for a modicum of peace (temporary) on the eastern border with India. The current cease fire between India and Pakistan will continue for some more time. However, he will most likely an adopt a policy of benevolent neglect of the terrorist organisations acting against India.
Therefore, it is safe to conclude that General Munir will not be making any major changes in the way Pakistan approaches international relations. Nothing positive can be expected in the Indo Pak relations.
India has limited financial resources. India needs peace on its orders, to concentrate its scarce resources for prosperity of its citizens.
Pakistan has unlimited financial support from China, oil rich Middle East and USA (main benefactor), inspite of its being the center for world terrorism.
India will continue to be the target of Pakistani army and its terrorist organisations.
India should continue to be wary of Pakistan for the tenure (2022 to 2025) of General Munir. Offer of talks, resuming diplomatic ties, extension of cease fire in Kashmir etc should not delude India to assume that Pakistan has reformed and stopped being a rogue state.
India cannot afford to let its guard down in Kashmir or elsewhere and should be prepared to face adventurous missions and terrorists from General Munir’s Pakistan.